-

Abstract

The study assesses the contribution of the AFOLU (LULUCF) sector of the Kyrgyz Republic to achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. An inertial business-as-usual (BAU) scenario is used as the baseline; calculations follow IPCC 2006 guidelines. The historical period is 1990–2017, with projections to 2050; the analysis covers forest land and perennial crops on cropland.AFOLU sector provides a persistent natural sink of about 10–11 Mt CO₂-eq yr⁻¹; removals were −10.367 Mt in 2017 and are expected to reach −11.852 Mt by 2050. With BAU-2050 = 45.269 Mt, the gross reduction required for net-zero is ≈33.4 Mt CO₂-eq (−73.8% relative to BAU-2050). The 2030 NDC targets (−15.97%/ −43.62% vs BAU-2030) do not deliver neutrality: the residual net balance is about 10.3 and 3.2 Mt, respectively. The proposed nature-based package—~3.9 thousand ha yr⁻¹ of afforestation/reforestation and ~2.9 thousand ha yr⁻¹ of new perennial plantings—would add ~1.488 Mt CO₂-eq yr⁻¹ of removals by 2050, covering ≈65% of the required increase (~1.49 Mt yr⁻¹).