Statistical modeling and assessment of the main indicators of the environmental impact of mineral resources extraction

Abstract

Mining, which is vital to Kyrgyzstan’s economy, has a significant negative impact on the environment. Scientific methods for quantifying such environmental damage, including regression analysis, play a vital role in modern environmental research. The study utilized modern methods of multivariate regression analysis: multivariate linear regression, correlation analysis, and statistical modeling of environmental impacts, which allow for the establishment of a relationship between technological parameters and environmental indicators in the mining process. This article examines Kyrgyzstan’s mineral resources, focusing on the Kara-Keche coal deposit in the Kavak Basin of Naryn Oblast and the Sary-Tash deposit in the village of Zhalpak-Tash in the Uzgen District. Coal accounts for over 50% of the country’s energy mix, and mining accounts for approximately 65% of environmental damage. As a result of the study, specialized regression models were developed for the mining industry of Kyrgyzstan, allowing for the determination of quantitative relationships between technological parameters and environmental indicators during the mining process, as well as for the prediction of environmental impacts.